REFUGEE

Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa's hopes of easily winning re-election have taken a blow with plans for a popular armed forces chief to run against him. The opposition's nomination of a war hero General Sarath Fonseka, the nation's chief of defense staff, may well split the Sinhala-Buddhist vote.

The presidential election is not due until November 2011, but there are signs Rajapaksa may hold them as early as January next year, to take advantage of a high-level of public support. The Sri Lankan army's defeat in May of the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ended the three-decade long civil war and led to a surge in Sinhala-Buddhist triumphalism, as well as in Rajapaksa's popularity.

The ruling United People's Freedom Alliance has benefited tremendously from the military victory, scoring a string of electoral



victories in provincial councils and local bodies over the past year. Rajapaksa hopes to cash in on the euphoria before public discontent grows over economic issues. He is expected to announce a revised election date on November 15.

Since the war ended, Rajapaksa and his allies have launched a campaign projecting him as "Sri Lanka's Savior", with billboards depicting him as a Buddhist deity visible across the island. The powerful Buddhist clergy has also participated in the glorification, with various chapters conferring on him titles such as Universally Glorious Overlord of the Sinhalese, Heroic Warrior Overlord of Lanka and Monarchical Emperor of the Glorious Land of Buddhism.

Immediately after the LTTE's defeat, Rajapaksa's supporters began a campaign to make him president for life. It failed to gather sufficient steam, but that hasn't stopped a personality cult being built around him, with ministers trumpeting his "foresight, patience and bravery".

Rajapaksa's campaign to take sole credit for the victory has ruffled feathers in the armed forces, triggering an ever-widening rift at the nation's highest levels of power. Relations between Rajapaksa and Fonseka deteriorated visibly in the weeks after the LTTE's defeat.

Fonseka was a big part of the offensive, leading crucial military offensives. He was army commander from December 2005 to July this year, leading the planning of the final phases of the "Eelam War IV", which culminated in the final defeat of the LTTE.

The Rajapaksa government has tried to downplay his contribution. "It was President Rajapaksa and his brother, Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, who steered the forces to victory against the LTTE," Labor Minister Mervyn Silva said at a public rally recently, calling on Fonseka and others not to take "personal credit" for the victory.

Fonseka was due to retire as army commander in December, but in July he was appointed as Chief of Defense Staff. The shuffle saw his stint in the more powerful post of army commander cut short by six months, with the "promotion" moving him to a powerless, ceremonial post. More recently, Fonseka was offered the position of Secretary to the Sports ministry, a job he has declined.

Fonseka has not taken this quietly, instead drawing attention to the central role the army played in the war. In a speech a fortnight ago, Fonseka said "certain people in Colombo" who "hold various responsibilities in the country" speak about the victory over the LTTE as though it was achieved with ease.

"No matter how talented we are as politicians, this victory may not have been possible if not for the assistance given by the public and service rendered by the soldiers," he said. "If not for the commitment of the army" the victory would not have been possible.

Fonseka's comments have left Rajapaksa's supporters anxious over plans for Fonseka to enter the presidential race.

Twelve political parties recently formed the Eksath Jathika Peramuna, or United National Front (UNF), which has the stated objective of combating the "corrupt and despotic Rajapaksa family regime". The opposition coalition believes Fonseka's credentials as a war hero will attract a sizeable section of the hardline Sinhala vote, placing him in a strong position to defeat Rajapaksa.
Fonseka indicated some weeks ago that he is considering a job change. "Generals wearing uniforms will not remain in the army forever," he said.

Even before he gives a formal nod to the new role, the Rajapaksa camp is ramping up criticism of Fonseka, and the patronage that the ruling party has extended the Buddhist clergy for years is paying off. The Patriotic National Movement, the Patriotic Bikkhu Front, the Jana Vijaya Foundation, the Jayagrahana Lanka Foundation and several Buddhist monks on Wednesday called on Fonseka to not contest the presidential election, warning that they will issue a decree against him if he does. Buddhist monks have threatened to organize mass protests against Fonseka.

Dire warnings are being made of what lies ahead for Sri Lanka should a former general become president. Education minister Susil Premajayantha has pointed to the "total mess" in Pakistan after General Zia-ul Haq came to power in a 1977 coup. The general died in 1988, but "the trend of destabilization continues even today," Premajayantha said.

Neither Rajapaksa nor Fonseka evokes confidence among the island's Tamils. This isn't surprising given that both were part of the violence unleashed on ordinary Tamils in the name of fighting the LTTE. Some Tamils in Sri Lanka and abroad would like to see Fonseka, Rajapaksa and his brother Gotabhaya tried for war crimes.

A fortnight ago, when Fonseka was in the United States on a private visit, it was reported that the US Department of Homeland Security was going to question him over alleged human-rights violations in the latter stages of the war. There was real fear in the Rajapaksa camp that he would give evidence against Gotabhaya, who is a US citizen.

Essentially, Rajapaksa and Fonseka are cut from the same cloth. Both are Sinhala-Buddhist hardliners who view Tamils as a minority who should know their place. In an interview to a Canadian daily newspaper in September 2008, Fonseka said he "strongly believed that Sri Lanka belongs to the Sinhalese, but there are minority communities" that are treated "like our people". "They can live in this country with us. But they must not try to, under the pretext of being a minority, demand undue things," he said.

Rajapaksa has displayed similar sentiments when dealing with Tamils. In the months following the LTTE's defeat, his government made few attempts to reconcile with the Tamils.

Only a few weeks ago, Rajapaksa's re-election was a foregone conclusion. Now that is not so certain, and he will have to fight harder to maintain his position if Fonseka throws his hat in the ring.

As for Fonseka, he would have to relinquish his uniform before contesting. Importantly, his resignation will have to be accepted by the president. Will Rajapaksa accept that resignation, or refuse to do so and prevent Fonseka from challenging him?

There are issues that Fonseka will have to sort out with the UNF. The abolition of the executive presidency is an important proposal that has drawn its constituents together, but Fonseka is said to be strongly opposed to this. Then there is the matter of the Tamil parties. Will they accept Fonseka as their presidential candidate?
Those opposed to Fonseka's entry into politics say it will politicize the military and undermine Sri Lanka's democracy. Fonseka as president will spell the end of democracy, his critics say. But democracy in Sri Lanka has been dying for a while, and it isn't the generals who have been strangling it. Sri Lanka's democracy has been weakened by successive democratically elected governments, with Rajapaksa's government contributing the most to this.