REFUGEE

The Indian media in its reports earlier speculated that India’s Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee who is due to visit Sri Lanka (SL) in connection with the former Foreign Minister of SL Late Lakshman Kadirgamar’s memorial oration will be meeting President Mahinda Rajapakse and inquiring about the current political situation in the country vis a vis General Sarath Fonseka’s resignation.
On Sunday morning (15) when Mukherjee met the President , whether he raised this issue is not known..According to some media reports , when Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe toured India last week , General Fonseka’s issue has surfaced. The Opposition leader has been asked whether the UNF , the new Alliance can give a certificate that it will fulfil its pledges if and when the General becomes the President of SL. India is at the same time having apprehensions about an Army Govt. taking over in SL.

A website has stated that because General Fonseka is a friend of Pakistan, India is not well disposed towards the General . Yet, India’s National security advisor Narayanan once declared that General Sarath Fonseka is World ‘s best Army Commander. The Tamil Nadu politicians demonstrated their anger over this comment. While the war was on , India officially invited General Sarath Fonseka to India. The General met the high ranking Officers and Security Advisor Narayanan on his tour. After inspecting a guard of Honor at the Indian Defense Ministry Headquarters , he told the media , ‘ the relations between both countries are good at the political level , but need to be increased at military level’…. ‘ I am here to further strengthen the military ties’.

General Fonseka is no stranger to India . He has attended extensive courses at the Indian Army’s counter insurgency and jungle warfare School at Varingte in Mizoram and at the Commando School at Belgum in Karnataka State. It is evident therefore that General Sarath Fonseka had close cordial relations with India’s security Division not only during the war , but even before.

After the war was over ,General Fonseka told the media , that arms and weapons had to be procured from China and Pakistan because India declined to supply offensive weapons. Though his statement was on the face of it in favour of China and Pakistan , India welcomed it , because India which helped SL on the sly during the war had need to show to the Tamil Nadu and the SL Tamil population that India did not assist SL Govt. in the war. There was also another reason : as soon as General Fonseka became the Chief of Defense staff following his resignation as Army Commander , the first step he took was to cancel the orders for arms and weapons from China and Pakistan. This cancellation which involved many billions of rupees worth Arms engendered huge losses to China and Pakistan. India no doubt wallowed in this action.

It is therefore manifest that India confronted no problems owing to General Fonseka’s military leadership , and as an Army leader he has been careful not to antagonize India. In spite of it , it cannot be said, General Fonseka’s prospective political career does not pose any worry or complication to India. This may also be because India has not got acquainted with him as a politician. It is India’s notion that the primary requirement of a political leader elected in SL should be one who could maintain cordial terms and dealings with India when it comes to choosing the SL’s prospective political leaders. India has always sought to establish links with the present President Mahinda Rajapaksa , Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and other State leaders of SL, even before they became leaders. It is India’s requirement to secure a certificate that if a leader is to be elected in SL , that prospective leader even if he is not in favor of India , he should not be inimical to it. It is on this account India gets closer to those prospective leaders who are qualified to become leaders in SL..

However , as regards General Fonseka’s political profile , India has no clear picture . Moreover, it has not enough time to acquire it. Of course, India has acknowledged that if a snap Presidential election is held ,and if General Fonseka contests as the Opposition common candidate he could be the next President of SL defeating Mahinda Rajapakse. India has hardly any time to become acquainted and strike up a close relationship with the General and stoke it up. In the circumstances , what India is wishing, is to secure a certificate as regards General Fonseka’s likely political trajectory from Ranil Wickremesinghe, the leader of the Opposition Alliance in the event of General Fonseka becoming the common Presidential candidate through the Alliance.

Perhaps, the Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was invited to India after its assessment and perception that General Fonseka is going to be the common Presidential candidate of the Opposition Alliance. No matter what media reports may say , Ranil an India have made sure that they remain tight lipped about their discussions and outcome. No sooner Ranil Wickremesinghe returned to the Island , than General Fonseka tendered his resignation and confirmed his entry into politics. It can be inferred following these events that India has consented to General Fonseka’s prospective political career.

Irrespective of India’s likes and dislikes for him , if General Fonseka has an opportunity to become the President of SL , India cannot avert it. If ever India could have had a leverage over deciding who shall or shall not be the President of SL was when it could exert pressure on the SL Tamil voters. But , today India has lost control over the SL Tamil voters. This was clearly testified to , when the Tamil Nadu delegation of politicians sent by the Indian Congress Govt. came to SL - they were not welcomed by the Tamil people of Jaffna.

In the circumstances , if the Tamil population is to learn that that India resents General Fonseka , they are sure to exercise their franchise in his favour to make him the President forgetting the General’s war history. This is because . it is the view of the Tamil population that if a leader whom India is hostile to is elected , the ties and transactions India has with SL will be sidelined and India can be made to seek after them . The Tamil population’s desire is to turn India ‘s programs topsy –turvy and make it come after the Tamil population. .