REFUGEE

Constitutional Affairs and National Integration Minister and Communist Party of Sri Lanka General Secretary Dew Gunasekera in an interview with Daily News staffer M.P. Muttiah says that it is a foregone conclusion that President Mahinda Rajapaksa will comfortably return to power.

Question: What is your assessment of the forthcoming Presidential Election?

Answer: To begin with, it is a foregone conclusion that President Mahinda Rajapaksa will comfortably return to power.

The crystallization of the political trends could be seen from the Provincial Council Election results right from the Eastern Province to the Southern Province. The UNP’s

vote bank was reduced to 20-25 percent. So was the case of the JVP which won as low as three to five percent.

The post-war political scene islandwide, including North will be more manifestly reflected in the forthcoming Election results.

The alignment of political forces will finally be between progressive and reaction — to put it bluntly and shortly. Progressive forces will rally round President Mahinda Rajapaksa while the reactionary forces rally round Ranil Wickremasinghe or General Sarath Fonseka, whoever leads the reaction.

Q: What made you to arrive at that conclusion so confidently?

A: Broadly speaking, there are four main factors: the end of war and the people’s wish for peace, President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s performance during his four years of administration in the socio-economic sectors despite the war, Tsunami after-effects, global food crisis, the global energy crisis culminating in $147 per barrel of oil, global financial crisis and global economic recession.

Sri Lanka’s image is being enhanced in the international arena. People’s confidence in President Mahinda Rajapaksa is at the highest level in villages and at the lower segments of society. No other Heads of State or Heads of Government since our independence could enhance people’s trust in him with four years. This is exceptional.

Q: With regard to economic performance, could you elucidate it?

A: Not only 26 years of war and three decades of terrorism, but also food crisis, global energy crisis, global financial crisis and economic recession were also formidable challenges.

Further, I would add another international factor, less known to the people, and that the international pressure of western powers on President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s administration. These pressures were on him in political, economic, diplomatic and media. Yet, Sri Lanka’s performance in the economy is spectacular. For example, take the GDP—7.2 percent in 2006, 6.89 percent in 2007and six percent in 2008.

In 2009, under recession we managed to survive with 1.8 percent of GDP in the first quarter, while almost all countries registered zero or minus. We are moving faster than most of other countries with the prospect of 3.5 percent by the end of 2009.

All our economic fundamentals are basically intact and are under control, despite all challenges.

Here I must, with gratitude, mention the fact our friendly countries – India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran, Vietnam, Cuba in the main — and host of other developing countries stood by us.

This international factor strengthened our will and determination to counter those formidable challenges.

Q: When President Mahinda Rajapaksa assumed the Presidency on November 19, 2005, that is four years back, can you recollect the political situation that prevailed then?

A: Yes, Mahinda Rajapaksa won the Presidential Election with a slender majority.

At that stage, the Government was in a minority in Parliament. I was the candidate for the post of Speaker against W.J.M. Lokubandara.

That was the first test of strength after the General Election of 2004. I lost by one vote. The Government failed to muster the majority.

So the situation in 2005 was volatile and vulnerable as far as the legislative power was concerned.

What should have been the option before President Mahinda Rajapaksa at that critical stage, with the tsunami after-effects and the on-going war? A fresh General Election was out of the question. We had by then three General Elections in 2000, 2001 and 2004 successively. The situation remained fluid.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa was compelled by the force of the existing realities to move for closer co-operation with the opposition parties – MoU with the UNP and other parties, cross-overs, new ministries, more ministers were the order of the day. The 1978 Constitution dictated the need for such political manoeuvres for the much-needed stability. Naturally, democracy was much costlier. One has to appreciate the acumen of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s leadership in the management of political affairs and in fact some forces within the precincts of 1978 Constitution.

Perhaps, alternatives would have been disastrous. He was proved correct. There is a tendency on the part of people to forget these facts of the past—the reality that existed immediately after the Presidential Election of 2005.

Q: What is your prognosis of the post-war political development in the North and the East?

A: It is too premature to make an assessment. Firstly, the people should come back to normalcy, feeling free and secure. Secondly, the civil administration needs to be restored as fast as possible. Thirdly, the democratic functioning, including political activity should re-commence.

Though the war has ended, the dark forces of terrorism still may be there.

It is through the accommodation of people’s need and aspiration that the seeds of terrorism, chauvinism, separation in the North could be destroyed.

I believe the process has begun. There appears to be a lot of re-thinking on the part of all political parties in the South as well as in the North. If we look back to the history of political development in the North and the East, you could see how the political leadership of the Tamil people changed over the last 50 years.

Q: Could you explain it further?

A: Prior to independence, there was only one Tamil political party, the All Ceylon Tamil Congress.

Like the UNP, it was the parallel pro-imperialist comprodore bourgeoisie. That was why it was easier for the Tamil Congress to work with the UNP with less conflicts.

A section of bourgeoisie in the Tamil Congress formed the Federal Party in 1949 - the same as in the case of SLFP in 1951. But political behaviour of both parties was reactionary in character.

They opposed all progressive legislations since 1956. Its leadership was passed on to Amirthalingam and Sivasithambaram in 1970s— more a national bourgeoisie leadership.

It changed its towards the socialist countries and in fact supported certain progressive legislations.

There was marked difference between the Federal Party and the TULF.

The arrogant UNP leadership, through its sixth Amendment to the Constitution, chased away the 18 MPs and caused the change of leadership of the Tamils from the TULF to the LTTE.

The LTTE, to begin with, was a right-wing, ultra-nationalist petty bourgeoisie organization. It sooner turned into a military outfit, with terrorism as a means of seizing power.

The militant left-wing section of the petty bourgeoisie returned to the main stream of politics as from 1987. The process of elimination of all Tamil political parties took place thereafter. This enabled the LTTE to claim as the sole representative of the Tamil people.

Now, the reverse process should take place under the changed conditions. So, there is bound to be re-thinking and re-alignment of political forces in the North and East. Those in the South should behave in a way as to encourage the restoration of democracy and re-alignment of social forces.

The emerging trends are already reflected in the TNA — with distinct variations.

Let this natural process take shape. Similarly the forces of the Left will also re-emerge under the changed conditions.

New alliances are inevitable if the normal democratic process is allowed to operate.

So, I anticipate, a re-alignment of social forces in the North before the Presidential Election or after the General Election of 2010.

The situation in the East is different in the context of multi-ethnic character of the Eastern Province.

But trends in the North may get reflected in the East as well.